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Please try again later. Back Fundamental Forecast for the Euro: Euro Rates Week in Review The Euro finished broadly lower as the calendar turned through mid-July, slipping lower in the second half of the week as the July ECB meeting has come into focus. The forecast of Eurozone Economic Data Showing Steady Improvement An objective look at European economic data shows that conditions have improved, relatively speaking, over the past few weeks.
Accordingly, the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the Eurozone, a gauge of economic data momentum, has improved to Eurozone Inflation Expectations Have Turned Higher Despite the recent drop in energy prices, the weaker Euro has seemingly been enough to offset the decline by crude and Brent oil prices; a direct indication that markets are pricing in dovish policy action by the ECB reflexively, if the ECB eases, then interest rate expectations should have bottomed.
According to separate Bloomberg News and Reuters surveys of economists, the ECB will not move on any of its key interest rates this week — the main rate, the marginal lending facility, or the deposit facility rate. Yet a look at market pricing as derived from Eurozone overnight index swaps suggests otherwise: The Euro appears destined for significant volatility in the second half of the week.
The futures market is now the least net-short is has been since September
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